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Getting Sentimental

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We believe that wherever possible, we should remove emotions from our trading psychology and try to act logically and systematically when making trading decisions. That’s because there are facets of our emotional selves that are just no good when it comes to making money. Impulses that encourage us to snatch at profits, make rash trades and run losses can be detrimental to our wealth in the same way that running out into a stream of moving traffic could be very detrimental to our health. We could go so far as to say that there is no room for sentiment at all in trading, but if we said that we wouldn’t be entirely correct. Because while it’s true that we want to remove sentiment and emotion from our own trading, we should be quite happy to take advantage of other people’s sentiments.


Picking the right wave

Trading is effectively a three-way competition. First, you compete with yourself and your psyche, of course, you also compete with the market in the same way that a surfer competes with the ocean. That is reading the changes in the swell and the wind in order to pick to the right waves. However, you are also competing with other traders, because in forex for every winner there is a loser, and to make money, you need to try to ensure that other traders and not you are on the losing side, more often than not. To succeed, we need to follow a rules-based trading strategy that helps us back only the best trading opportunities that the market presents to us. We also need to try and develop an edge over our competition, that is other traders.

Of course, we don’t and can’t know who these other traders are, and even if we did it wouldn’t do us much good, because there are millions of them spread out across the globe trading away at any one time. However, the fact that there are so many competitors out there can work in our favour. Why? Because a crowd that big leaves a trail that we can follow and that can provide us with an edge.


Tracking the markets thinking

One of the methods that we can use to gauge what the rest of the market is thinking and doing is to look at what they are buying, selling and saying. That is measuring the sentiment towards the markets, and doing that in aggregate.

 

There are several ways in which we can do this. For example, we could study the weekly Commitment of Traders reports that are produced by the US CFTC which track changes in positioning in listed futures contracts (including FX majors) among key investor and trading groups. However, these reports are released three days in arrears, late on Friday afternoon in the USA. What’s more, they are not exactly user friendly in terms of their layout or the way that the data is presented or in the ease of interpretation (the CFTC is not known for its beautiful charts!).

 

Perhaps a more simplistic way to track trader sentiment is to look at what’s happening to the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc and government bonds. If these instruments are rising in price, then that’s a sign of Risk-Off sentiment among traders.

 

If those safe-haven assets are strengthening when risk assets such as equities and Emerging Market currencies like the South African rand, Brazilian real and Turkish lira etc. are weakening, then you will know it’s risk-off. Of course, if we see risk assets appreciating while safe-havens are falling in price, that’s an indicator of Risk-On sentiment among market participants.

 

However, there are quite a few items to monitor the strategy outlined above. Since we are trying to gauge the aggregate sentiment of the crowd, it would be good if we had an indicator to gauge sentiment across a wide range of assets as well.

 

True we could try to use the VIX and other volatility indices, volatility is a measure of the rate and severity of price changes within an instrument or market. It tends to rise sharply as markets become fearful and trend lower when fear subsides and greed re-asserts itself. But once again, this would mean monitoring multiple items from different sources, to which we may have varying degrees of access.


A single gauge of sentiment?

Instead, what if we had one indicator that could tell us what others in the markets were thinking?

 

Fusion Markets has partnered up with some very talented engineers to simplify this even further.

 

Using cutting-edge artificial intelligence techniques known as Natural Language Processing (NLP), we can use machines to take in hundreds of thousands of data points across the web to gauge sentiment.

 

Are people talking about the Aussie dollar? What are they saying exactly? Are they positive or negative?

 

What about Gold? Is the crowd bullish or bearish?

 

To do this, yourself (e.g. scour hundreds of thousands of sources across the web) would be impossible. That’s why we always say there’s never been a more exciting time to be a trader (at least with Fusion anyway) and have these tools available that were previously only available to the world’s best hedge funds and asset managers.

 

We’ll leave it to you as to whether or not the crowd thinking it is highly bullish is a good signal to trade or a bad one and the strategy here (if you’ve read our views previously, you will know the answer!). Still, while it is not the holy grail as a single strategy, we believe this is a handy weapon to add to your arsenal to get an edge over others.


To start using our Sentiment tool now, create a Fusion account (it's free and there's no obligation to trade).

We’ll never share your email with third-parties. Opt-out anytime.

Relevant articles

Trading and Brokerage
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Index CFD Dividends | Week 16/09/2024
Fusion Markets

Please see the table below for any upcoming dividend adjustments on indices for the week starting September 16th, 2024.



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* Please note these figures are quoted in the index point amount

 



What is a dividend?


Dividends are a portion of company earnings given to shareholders. As indices are often composed of individual shares, an index dividend pays out based on individual shares proportional to the index’s weighting.


Trading on a CFD Index does not create any ownership of the underlying stocks, or an entitlement to receive the actual dividends from these companies.

 

What is an ex-dividend date?


An ex-dividend date is the cut-off date a share must be owned in order to receive a dividend. If an investor buys a share after the ex-dividend date, then they will not be entitled to earn or pay the next round of dividends. This is usually one business day before the dividend.

 

Do dividends affect my position?


Share prices should theoretically fall by the amount of the dividend. If the company has paid the dividend with cash, then there is less cash on the balance sheet, so in theory, the company should be valued lower (by the amount of the dividend).


Due to the corresponding price movement of the stock index when the ex-dividend date is reached, Fusion must provide a 'dividend' adjustment to ensure that no trader is positively or negatively impacted by the ex-dividend event.

 

How will the dividend appear on my account?


The dividend will appear as a cash adjustment on your account. If your base currency is different from the currency the dividend is paid out in, then it will be converted at the live FX rate to your base currency.

 

Why was I charged a dividend?


Depending on your position, given you are holding your position before the ex-dividend date, you will either be paid or charged the amount based on the dividend. Traders shorting an index will pay the dividend, whereas traders who are long the index will be paid the dividend.

 

Why didn’t I receive my dividend?


You may not have received a dividend for a number of reasons:


- You entered your position after the ex-dividend date

- You are trading an index without dividend payments

- You are short an index


If you believe the reasons above do not apply to your position, please reach out to our support team at [email protected] and we’ll investigate further for you.




Forex Trading
CFD
Dividends
16.09.2024
Trading and Brokerage
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The Real Cost of Forex Trading
Fusion Markets
Understanding the characteristics of the forex market is crucial for success. The concept is simple; forex trading involves buying and selling currencies with the aim of making a profit. However, many new traders dive into this market without fully grasping the real costs involved. In this guide, we'll explore the hidden expenses that can impact your trading profitability and provide tips to incorporate into your trading and avoid any unnecessary costs.

 




Understanding the Hidden Costs



Spread and Commissions


When trading forex, you'll encounter bid and ask prices. The bid price is what buyers are willing to pay, while the ask price is what sellers are asking for. The difference between these two prices is known as the spread. This spread represents the cost of trading and can vary depending on market conditions and the broker you're using. Additionally, account types such as Fusion Markets’ Zero account, don’t have a spread, but rather commissions on each trade. This can be beneficial to traders who are looking for a regular-cost solution.


Understanding the impact of spread on trading costs is essential. Even seemingly small spreads can add up over time, affecting your profitability. Different brokers offer various commission structures, including fixed or variable spreads and commission-based pricing. It's crucial to compare these structures and choose the one that aligns with your trading strategy.


Overnight Financing Fees


When holding positions overnight, you may incur overnight financing fees, also known as swap rates. These fees are charged for the privilege of keeping a position open beyond the trading day. Calculated based on the interest rate differential between the two currencies being traded, overnight financing fees can eat into your profits over time. Long-term traders should carefully consider these fees as they can significantly impact overall profitability if you’re holding a position with a negative swap for multiple days or weeks.


Slippage


Slippage occurs when the execution of a trade differs from the expected price. It can be caused by market volatility, liquidity issues, or delays in order execution. Slippage can lead to unexpected losses or reduced profits, especially during fast-moving markets or when trading large positions.


To minimise slippage, traders can use limit orders, advanced trading algorithms, or avoid trading during periods of high volatility, such as major news releases or the day rollover.




Tools for Transparent Financial Analysis


Fusion Markets Spreads Tool


Trading Journal


Keeping a detailed trading journal is essential for tracking your performance and identifying areas for improvement. Your journal should include details such as entry and exit points, trade duration, position size, and reasons for entering the trade. Analysing this data can help you identify patterns in your performance, enabling you to refine your strategy, and optimise your trading approach.


Performance Metrics


Key performance metrics such as win rate, risk-reward ratio, and drawdown are valuable tools for evaluating your trading performance. A high win rate alone does not necessarily indicate success if the risk-reward ratio is unfavourable or if drawdowns are excessive. By calculating and interpreting these metrics, you can gain insights into the effectiveness of your trading strategy and make adjustments accordingly.


For example, a trader might have a win rate of 70% but still not be profitable. By analysing their performance metrics, the trader can identify that they have an inadequate risk-reward ratio; meaning that their losing trades are, on average, larger in value than their winning trades.


Historical Data Analysis


By leveraging past market movements and trends, traders gain valuable insights for informed decision-making. Whether assessing the viability of a trading strategy or gauging potential risks, historical data provides a rich tapestry of information.


Using historical data, traders can back-test strategies. Back-testing involves testing a trading strategy using historical data to see how it would have performed under past market conditions.


By incorporating historical data into risk management practices, a trader can better anticipate potential risks and adjust their strategies accordingly.


In the ever-changing world of trading, historical data becomes like a guiding light, preparing us for what could happen, based on previous events. In turn, this knowledge allows traders to make more informed decisions. You can view Fusion’s Live and Historical spreads to stay informed.



Tips for Transparent Financial Analysis


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Set Realistic Profit Expectations


It's essential to set realistic profit expectations based on your trading strategy and risk tolerance. Avoid overestimating potential profits and understand the relationship between risk and reward. Remember that trading involves inherent risks, and losses are inevitable.


Practice Risk Management


Implementing proper risk management techniques is crucial for preserving your capital and long-term success. This includes setting stop-loss orders to limit potential losses and employing position sizing strategies to manage risk exposure effectively.


Managing open trades by tightening your stop as the derivative moves in your intended direction can also boost your R-multiple and improve your return over the long-run.


Continuously Educate Yourself


The forex market is dynamic and constantly evolving, so staying up to date on market trends and developments is essential. Continuously educate yourself through books, online courses, and seminars to refine your skills and stay ahead of the curve.


Choosing Reputable Brokers with Transparent Fee Structures


Selecting a reputable broker with transparent fee structures is paramount. Before committing to a broker, thoroughly research their reputation, regulatory compliance, and fee structures. Don't hesitate to ask questions and seek clarification on costs to ensure transparency and avoid unexpected expenses. 



Conclusion


Navigating the hidden costs of forex trading requires a combination of knowledge, skill, and diligence. By understanding the various expenses involved, utilising tools for transparent financial analysis, and practising sound risk management, new traders can increase their chances of success in the forex market. Continuously educate yourself, choose reputable brokers, and always prioritise transparency in your trading endeavours.


If you want to know more about Fusion Markets, our products, fee structures and services, please contact a member of our friendly team or visit our live chat on our site. 

Forex
Trading
Tips
08.08.2024
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