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NZD/CAD: An Overview

Fusion Markets

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The Forex symbol NZD/CAD indicates the exchange rate value between the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the Canadian dollar (CAD).

 



Currency background

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

 

The New Zealand dollar has been New Zealand's official currency since 1967. It is also used by the Cook Islands, Niue, the Pitcairn Islands, and Tokelau.

 

Before NZD emerged as the country's official currency, New Zealand used the New Zealand pound. It should be noted that it differs from NZD and the sterling pound. The government researched using a decimal currency, eventually leading to the use of NZD.

 

When NZD was introduced, 27 million worth of banknotes and 165 million in coins were produced. The currency is also known as the kiwi, after the bird native to New Zealand.

 

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

 

The Canadian dollar (CAD) has been Canada's official currency since 1858. It uses the typical dollar sign ($). You will sometimes see it as CAD, Can$, or even CA$. These variations are meant to distinguish it from other currencies that use the dollar name. Like other dollar denominations, such as NZD, it is a decimal currency.

 

CAD is pretty popular, holding the fifth most chosen reserve currency. Of course, USD dollar is at the top, followed by the EUR, GBP, and JPY. CAD is also the sixth most traded currency because the country has a lot to offer in terms of raw materials and natural resources.

 

Factors you need to consider in trading NZD/CAD

 

Most currency pairs depend on similar factors, such as economic trends and geopolitical factors. Your wins and losses will depend on the countries your currencies are from.

 

Here are some factors that drive the NZD/CAD dynamics:

 

Economic and geopolitical conditions are the most significant factors that affect NZD/CAD as a Forex pair.

 

Economic conditions

 

When considering the NZD/CAD Forex pairing, you may want to take special note of Canada's strong economy. It is a mixed one, with over 70% of it relying on the service industry.

 

It is worth noting that in 2020, the country was considered to have the world's ninth-largest economy, with almost USD 1.75 trillion in GDP. It even places third worldwide in terms of oil deposits. There are many other raw materials the country can also export.

 

Meanwhile, NZD has recently (at the time of writing) experienced a surge, with its economy rising faster than investors expected. The second quarter of 2022 has seen it grow by 1.7%. The rally did not last long, and more recent stats show it is now fizzling. However, considering the 0.2% drop during the first quarter, NZD is still headed in the right direction.

 

Because New Zealand is very close to Australia, observe how their economies are also closely interrelated. A lot of New Zealand’s exports may be going to its neighbour.

 

As a Forex pairing, NZD/CAD is reliable enough. It may not involve the ever-popular USD, but CAD is a reliable currency, and NZD is also proving its worth. One must, of course, at least show some predictable up-and-down motion for you to profit from this pair.

 

Because both Canada and New Zealand are known for their oil and other commodities, you may also want to do a lot of commodity price watching before you make a trade.

 

Geopolitical conditions and global risks

 

Canada does very well politically. It is known to have one of the least corrupt politics in the whole world. That fact makes it a steady country with a reliable economy.

 

Meanwhile, New Zealand is generally known as a peaceful country. Still, it is difficult to deny that current global tensions have affected the currency. NZD's value lowers as the tensions and the prices soar, an effect felt long after the COVID-19 lockdowns.

 

Despite NZD issues, local exporters benefit from lower NZD value.

 

Perception

 

How each of these economies is perceived also plays a role in how each performs. Traders want to invest in something they can trust and predict. For example, Canada is generally perceived to have clean and non-corrupt political practices. It also continues to deliver high-quality raw materials and natural resources. Both these factors play a big role in the currency's perception.

 

How to trade NZD/CAD

 

When trying to profit from this particular Forex pair, do so during the optimum times: from 13:00 and 17:00 (GMT). Why? It is at these hours that the NZD/CAD is at its busiest. Be careful. Trading when it is at its volatile is risky, while trading when it is not volatile will have you spending too much.


A number of other factors will also influence the volatility of this pair, for example, the CAD exchange rate can be affected by the US’s economic conditions. Meanwhile, the NZD is affected by Asian and Australian markets.

 

Conclusion

 

Is the NZD/CAD pair worth going into?

 

The NZD and CAD pairing does not involve the USD, the most sought-after currency. So, it does have that against it.

 

However, CAD is reliable enough. It is one of the world's most-held reserve currencies, coming from a stable country with perceptibly good politics and many resources. So, you can trade this pair with the knowledge that you can, at least, rely on the CAD.

 

The combination with NZD is near perfect because the New Zealand currency may be experiencing some issues, but it is still generally more reliable than many other currencies. It is the 18th most used currency, from a largely peaceful country. The ups and downs it is currently experiencing may ultimately benefit traders. After all, you want to profit from the trade and not work on a pegged, static currency.

 

So, it is worth checking NZD/CAD if you want to diversify your foreign exchange portfolio. You may still have another pairing with USD involved, but the NZD/CAD pair is worth checking out.


NZD CAD Currency Trading Forex

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The Power of Backtesting in Forex Trading

10 Minute Read time.


Developing a reliable and effective trading strategy is essential. One of the most powerful tools at a trader’s disposal is backtesting – a process in which you can evaluate a trading strategy’s potential profitability and consistency against historical market data.


This process helps identify strengths and weaknesses in your strategies, enabling you to make necessary adjustments before trading real money.


Given the volatile nature of Forex trading, especially in currency pairs like AUD/USD and EUR/NZD, backtesting is essential for gaining a competitive edge. These currency pairs are known for their dynamic movements, influenced by various factors such as economic indicators, geopolitical events, and central bank policies. By backtesting your strategy on these pairs, you can better understand how your approach might perform under different market conditions, providing you with the confidence to execute trades in real time.



Contents




Key Takeaways



  • Backtesting is a critical process that involves evaluating a trading strategy against historical data to determine its effectiveness and reliability.

  • It offers a risk-free environment to test strategies, enabling traders to gain valuable insights into performance metrics and refine their approach without financial loss.

  • Avoid common backtesting pitfalls such as overlooking varying market conditions, ignoring psychological impacts, and neglecting the importance of forward testing.

  • Integrating backtesting into your trading routine ensures continuous improvement of strategies, promotes a data-driven approach, and helps build trading confidence.



Benefits of Backtesting



1. Risk-Free Strategy Evaluation


As mentioned, one of the most significant advantages of backtesting is the ability to evaluate a trading strategy without risking real capital. In live trading, every decision carries financial risk, and mistakes can be costly. Backtesting, however, offers a simulated environment where you can see how your strategies would have performed in real market conditions.


As an example, imagine developing a new trading strategy based on technical indicators such as moving averages and RSI. By backtesting this strategy against historical data from the AUD/USD pair over the past five years, you can see how it would have fared during various market phases – whether trending, ranging, or volatile.


2. Performance Insights


Backtesting provides insights into invaluable performance metrics that provide a deeper understanding of a strategy's effectiveness. These insights include key metrics such as win/loss ratios, maximum drawdowns, average returns, and the strategy's performance during different market conditions.


For example, a backtest might reveal that your strategy performs exceptionally well during trending markets but struggles in sideways markets. With this information, you can tweak your approach to improve its performance in different conditions.


Backtesting also allows you to assess the strategy's versatility by testing it across different timeframes and market environments. This allows you to not only determine the best market conditions for your strategy but also the most effective chart time frame.


3. Cost-Effective Learning


The financial markets are unforgiving, and mistakes can be costly. Losses can be discouraging and detrimental to your trading psychology and, ultimately, your account. Backtesting, on the other hand, offers a cost-effective way to learn from mistakes without incurring actual losses.


This allows you to identify potential pitfalls, such as poor entry or exit points, and refine your strategy accordingly. In doing so, you avoid the financial costs associated with real-world trading errors.


Additionally, backtesting can reveal hidden costs in your strategy, such as slippage and commissions, which can significantly impact your profitability. Understanding these costs upfront helps you make more informed decisions, such as choosing a broker with lower trading fees or adjusting your trade sizes to minimise slippage.


We highly recommend you read our post on the real cost of trading here.


4. Confidence Building


Confidence is a critical component of successful trading. Without confidence in your strategy, it’s challenging to stick to your trading plan, especially during periods of drawdown or market volatility. Backtesting allows you to build confidence by providing yourself with evidence that your strategy has performed well in the past.


After backtesting your strategy, you might find that it consistently generates positive returns over several years of historical data. This allows you to execute your strategy in live trading with confidence, knowing that it has been tested and proven to work. This also includes major market events – such as the 2008 financial crisis or the Brexit referendum – allowing you to be prepared for any major market events in the future.



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How to Conduct Effective Backtesting



1. Choose Reliable and Comprehensive Historical Data


The quality of your backtesting results heavily depends on the quality of the historical data you use. It’s essential to choose a reliable data source that provides comprehensive and accurate data, including bid/ask prices, spreads, and market conditions.


For instance, if you’re backtesting a strategy on the AUD/NZD pair, you’ll need historical data that covers various market conditions, such as periods of low liquidity or high volatility. This ensures that your backtesting results are reflective of real market conditions and not skewed by inaccurate or incomplete data.



2. Select Appropriate Timeframes Covering Various Market Conditions


You need to ensure that your data covers a sufficient time frame to test your strategy effectively. If you’re developing a long-term trading strategy, backtesting on at least 10 years of historical data is recommended. This provides a broader perspective on how your strategy would have performed in trending and ranging markets during different market phases over the long-term.


The relevance of the time frame to your strategy is important in order to achieve the most accurate results. For example, a day trader might backtest their strategy on 1-minute or 5-minute charts, whereas a swing trader might backtest on daily or weekly charts.



3. Account for All Trading Costs, Including Slippage and Commissions


As mentioned earlier, there are other costs to consider in trading other than losing trades, and backtesting is no different. To obtain accurate results, it’s essential to account for all trading costs, including slippage, commissions, and spreads. These costs can significantly impact your strategy’s profitability and ignoring them can lead to an overestimation of your strategy’s success.


These additional costs affect all styles of trading – spreads and slippage can quickly eat up a day trader’s profits, and overnight swap rates over a sustained period of time can reduce a swing trader’s overall profit. By incorporating these costs into your backtesting, you can get a more realistic picture of your strategy’s potential performance.



4. Use Proper Risk Management


Risk management is a critical component of any trading strategy, and it should be an integral part of your backtesting process. Proper risk management ensures that you’re not risking more than you can afford to lose on any single trade, helping to protect your trading capital.


For example, when backtesting, ensure you incorporate stop-loss and take-profit levels to assess how they impact your strategy’s performance. You might find that adjusting your stop-loss levels slightly improves your overall risk-to-reward ratio, leading to better long-term results.


Additionally, consider position sizing as part of your risk management strategy. For instance, using a fixed percentage of your trading capital for each trade can help you manage risk more effectively. Backtesting different position sizing methods can provide insights into which approach works best for your trading style.



5. Avoid Curve Fitting and Data Dredging


Curve fitting, also known as data dredging, is a common pitfall in backtesting that occurs when a strategy is overly optimised to fit historical data. While this might result in impressive backtesting results, it often leads to poor performance in live trading, as the strategy is tailored to past data rather than being robust enough to handle future market conditions.


For example, you might develop a strategy that performs exceptionally well on the EUR/NZD pair during a specific time period. However, if the strategy is too tightly fitted to this historical data, it may fail when applied to different market conditions or time frames.


To avoid curve fitting, focus on creating a strategy that works well across different market conditions and time frames. Instead of optimising your strategy to maximise historical profits, aim for a balanced approach that considers various factors, such as risk management and market volatility. This ensures that your strategy is more likely to succeed in live trading.



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Common Backtesting Pitfalls



1. Overlooking Market Conditions


One of the most common mistakes in backtesting is overlooking the impact of different market conditions on a strategy’s performance. Markets are dynamic, and a strategy that works well in one market environment might fail in another.


Consider backtesting your strategy on currency pairs during different market phases, such as high volatility periods, ranging markets, and low liquidity conditions. This helps you understand how your strategy adapts to changing market conditions and allows you to make necessary adjustments to improve its performance.


2. Ignoring Psychological Factors


Whilst backtesting provides valuable technical insights, it doesn’t account for the psychological pressures of live trading. Emotions such as fear, greed, and overconfidence can significantly impact trading decisions, leading to deviations from your trading plan.


For example, a backtested strategy might show excellent results, but when applied in live trading, you might find it difficult to stick to the plan due to emotional factors. This is why it’s important to complement backtesting with forward testing or real-time simulations on a demo account to experience the psychological challenges of live trading.


Forward testing provides a more realistic environment to assess how you react to market movements and psychological pressures. By combining backtesting with forward testing, you can develop a more comprehensive understanding of your strategy’s performance and your ability to execute it under real-world conditions.


3. Neglecting to Forward Test


After completing a thorough backtest, the next logical step is forward testing – testing your strategy in real-time using a simulated trading environment. Forward testing helps validate the results obtained from backtesting and ensures that your strategy holds up under live market conditions.


For example, after backtesting your strategy on the AUD/USD pair, you might move on to forward testing by executing simulated trades on a demo account. This allows you to observe how the strategy performs in real-time, taking into account factors such as slippage, order execution, and market psychology.


Forward testing also helps identify any issues that may not have been apparent during backtesting, such as execution delays or unexpected market reactions. By incorporating forward testing into your strategy development process, you can gain a more realistic idea of the strategy’s effectiveness.


4. Bias in Strategy Development


Bias in strategy development is another common pitfall in backtesting. Confirmation bias, where traders subconsciously look for data that supports their pre-existing beliefs, can lead to skewed backtesting results and overconfidence in a strategy’s success.


For example, you might develop a strategy based on a specific technical indicator that you believe is highly effective. However, if you only test the strategy on historical data that supports your belief, you might overlook its weaknesses in other market conditions.


To avoid bias, it’s important to remain objective in your approach and test your strategy across a wide range of market conditions and timeframes. You can read more about the psychological aspects of trading here.



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Integrating Backtesting into Your Trading Routine



1. Regular Strategy Updates


The forex market is constantly evolving, and trading strategies that work today may not be effective tomorrow. To stay ahead of the curve, it’s essential to regularly update your strategies with the latest market data and insights.


For example, if you’ve been trading a specific currency pair for several years, you might notice changes in market behaviour due to factors such as new economic policies, shifts in global trade dynamics, or changes in central bank interest rates. By regularly updating your backtesting data and incorporating these changes into your strategy, you can ensure that your approach remains relevant and effective.


Consider re-testing your strategy periodically to ensure that it continues to perform well under current market conditions – especially after significant changes in the relevant currency’s economy or government.


2. Continuous Refinement


Backtesting should not be a one-time exercise but an ongoing process of continuous refinement. As you gain more experience and insights from your trading activities, you can use backtesting to further fine-tune your strategies and improve their performance.


After gaining more trading experience, you might notice that certain patterns or market behaviours are more predictive of future price movements. By incorporating these insights into your backtesting process, you can refine your strategy to better capitalise on future opportunities.


Continuous refinement also involves staying up to date with new trading tools, techniques, and market trends. As the financial markets evolve, more and more resources and tools become available to traders. Some of which you might find are beneficial to your strategy or trading style.



3. Testing New Ideas


As we touched on earlier, backtesting provides a safe and controlled environment to experiment with new trading ideas without the risk of losing capital. Whether you’re exploring new technical indicators, adjusting your entry and exit criteria, or testing different risk management techniques, backtesting allows you to evaluate these ideas objectively.


Testing new ideas through backtesting also encourages innovation and creativity in your trading approach. Instead of relying solely on conventional strategies, you can explore new methodologies and discover unique approaches that better align with your trading style and goals.



4. Building a Data-Driven Approach


Incorporating backtesting into your trading routine fosters a data-driven mindset, where trading decisions are based on empirical evidence rather than intuition or emotion. This approach leads to more consistent and successful trading outcomes, as it allows you to make informed decisions based on historical performance data.


By analysing the results of your back tests, you can identify patterns and trends that are statistically significant and use this information to guide your trading decisions. This data-driven approach helps you avoid common trading pitfalls, such as chasing losses or making impulsive decisions and provides you with the true performance potential of your strategy.


A data-driven approach encourages a systematic and disciplined trading process. By adhering to a well-defined strategy that has been thoroughly backtested, you can reduce the impact of emotions on your trading decisions and improve your overall performance.




Conclusion


Backtesting is an indispensable tool in the development and refinement of Forex trading strategies. By providing a risk-free environment to evaluate the effectiveness of your strategies, backtesting helps build confidence, improve performance, and foster a data-driven approach to trading.


Incorporating backtesting into your trading routine is essential if you want to stay competitive in the ever-evolving forex market. Whether you’re a novice trader looking to develop your first strategy or an experienced trader seeking to refine your approach, backtesting offers invaluable insights that can help you navigate the complexities of the Forex market with greater precision and confidence.


As you continue to develop your trading skills, make backtesting a regular part of your routine. The insights gained from backtesting will empower you to trade with greater confidence and discipline, ultimately leading to more successful and profitable trading outcomes. Don’t wait—start incorporating backtesting into your trading process today and unlock the full potential of your trading strategies.


The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only. Backtesting, while a useful tool, does not guarantee future results


Backtesting
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12.09.2024
Market Analysis
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USD/BRL: An Overview
Fusion Markets

The forex symbol USD/BRL indicates the exchange rate value between the USD (US dollar) and the BRL (Brazilian Real)

 




Currency background


USD (US dollar)

 

The USD dollar is the United States of America’s official currency. Each dollar is made up of 100 cents. It is represented by US$ when differentiating it from other countries’ dollar currencies. However, they are more often just marked as $.

 

This currency has become the benchmark for other currencies because it is the most popularly used one. Even territories beyond the US have commonly used it as an unofficial currency.

 

Because it is often at the core of foreign-exchange trades, it has its own index – the USDX. It is regarded as the world’s most stable currency.

 

Brazilian Real (BRL)

 

The Brazilian Real (BRL) is Brazil’s official currency. Each Brazilian real is made up of 100 centavos. It is represented by the R$ symbol.

 

It was first used as the country’s official currency in July 1994. It replaced the cruzeiro real. The exchange ratio between the former and the current currencies are not 1:1, either. 1 real is equals to 2,750 cruzeiro real.

 

From 1994 to 1999, BRL was pegged to the USD as an attempt to maintain stability. As the largest Latin American economy, it is worth looking into. It is also the 9th largest in the world.

 

If you’re considering taking the USD/BRL pair, here are the things to consider:

 

Economic Conditions

 

Currency values depend on the economic conditions and public reception of their country’s stability.

 

Since the mid-twentieth century, the USD dollar has established itself as a powerhouse in the global economy. However, because it is a fiat currency, it is also affected by the United States’ economic outlook and activity.

 

Its strength may be good for the country itself. It can also be good for those who may be relying on its general strength to earn in foreign exchanges.

 

However, a powerful USD can be detrimental to countries relying on exports from the United States.

 

While the USD is obviously strong throughout, much can be said about Brazil’s economy as well. It is believed to be one of the strongest emerging economies due to its rich natural resources.

 

Its diversity in economy has spurred foreign investment to pour in. With an estimated $200 billion of direct investments, Brazil’s currency is doing great.

 

It wasn’t always the case. The currency faced several currency crises such as the Mexican currency one from 1994 to 1995, and the one with Asia and Russia in 1997 and 1999. Investors then didn’t want to have anything to do with the Brazilian real.

 

Supply and Demand

 

When the US exports more products, it triggers more demand for its currency because customers must change their money to dollars to be able to pay for the goods.

 

The US government and top American corporations may also issue bonds that can be purchased only with the US Dollar. Foreign investors must buy dollars to buy those financial instruments.

 

Because of the overall reliability and strength of the US dollar, a lot of investors will still buy the currency as a reserve.

 

Perception

 

Currencies depend on perception or market sentiment. For example, if people have been watching the news, finding out about a weakened US economy or increased unemployment, the tendency is to buy back their local currency. This will lower the value of the dollar.

 

The same goes with the BRL, but even worse since it is a less popular currency. While its economy is doing well and has it placed up there among emerging markets, political corruption could be its downfall.

 

Geopolitical Conditions and Global Risks

 

One of the factors that affect perception is geopolitical conditions. How are the politics in the country?

 

USD is a dominant global reserve. It may experience some lows, but it is always generally high in value. Recent events have this fiat currency on the rise, too. On the other hand, Brazil also started strong this year and has been pulling from Russian assets.

 

What can provide some volatility in the USD/BRL pair is Lula’s recent election as the President of Brazil.

 

How to trade USD/BRL

 

Now that you know the strength of the individual currencies, how do you trade the USD/BRL pair?

 

The value you get will depend on the exchange rate between the two.

 

While USD is a stable currency, Brazilian real is the currency of an emerging market. It means that Brazil’s GDP has been steadily growing from 2000. A similar trend is expected to continue.

 

You will earn a profit because an emerging market’s GDP tends to grow rapidly. However, you must be vigilant because it is also at risk of being negatively impacted by political instability and currency fluctuations. Weigh risks against rewards.

 

Pick the right time frame

 

Trade when the USD/BRL is at its busiest, and potentially at its most volatile. The 8:00 to 12:00 Eastern Time frame is also the time when USD details are more readily available.

 

It is when significant chunks of data have been released that a currency pair’s volatility increases. Be watchful at this time because you will have increased opportunities for profitable trades.

 

Conclusion

 

USD/BRL is useful if you want to diversify your foreign exchange portfolio. Your portfolio may see increased gains/losses when one of the fiat currencies in your portfolio is an emerging one.

 

Why?

 

Emerging currencies are more likely to display greater volatility. They have also been steadily rising since 2000. Though the previous formation is not a guarantee of future performance, the current strength of currencies like the Brazilian Real is reassuring.

 

Of course, you will be dealing with two currencies that can give you a lot of value. The USD is always strong. Meanwhile, BRL performs well because of the resources and commodities that Brazil can export. Exports can strengthen both currencies because they prompt investors to buy them.


Currency Trading
BRL
Trading Tips
USD
17.11.2022
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