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When the time comes to buy, you won't want to

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Much of what we write about in these articles is about the mindset and behaviour of traders and trading. The reason for this is quite straight forward; it's because it's the decisions that we make and take that will ultimately determine how we perform as traders.

 

Yes, of course, price changes in the markets will play their part but, in the end, it's our decision whether to get involved or not and that determines how much capital we commit to trade, how long we hold the position for, and what the ultimate outcome of the trade will be.


Hidden costs

When we examine the costs of trading, we tend to focus on commissions and spreads and our PnL, but there are other costs, costs that we don't consider when really, we should.

 

These are the costs of inactivity and indecision, the costs of listening to outside influences more than to your own inner feelings and intuition. They are the costs of missing out, what economists call "opportunity costs".

 

Self-doubt among traders is not unusual, and in truth, it's better to exercise a degree of caution than to be 100% confident about everything you do. Hubris has been the downfall of many traders, and we certainly advocate being prudent with your risk. That said, It's always worth testing your thinking and assumptions and checking that they are still valid before you trade.

 

The problem comes when you start to talk yourself out of the trade entirely. After all, trading is a risk and reward business. There can be no profit without the possibility of loss.

 

A trader's job is to try and ensure that the risk that they take is in proportion to the potential rewards they could make. Not taking that risk could be limiting your potential as a trader which in turn may be limiting your rewards or returns.

 

Moments of clarity


Sometimes as a trader or investor, you will enjoy a moment of clarity, a moment of pure thought and insight, in which you can see exactly how a market setup or situation will playout. Moments when you just know you are right

 

If that moment of clarity coincides with significant moves in the markets, then that can be a very valuable situation indeed. But only if you act on it.

 

Allow me to tell you a personal story. During the great 2020 downturn in oil (where a Saudi/Russia price war caused prices to go NEGATIVE), I found myself holding oil from $30 a barrel and riding it all the way down watching in sheer horror. I kept buying the dip. How much lower could it go, I thought? I ignored every rule and everything I've written in the past about this. I didn't put a stop loss on. I told myself it was a long-term trade that I would stay in forever. Prices surely couldn't go below $20. That's madness. Then… The unthinkable happened in the futures price – it went negative.

 

Thankfully, Fusion's price didn't go negative (we use Spot Crude oil) but with spot prices at $15, I was sitting watching Netflix on my couch, and my heart raced as I saw it go down like World War III just started. The news sites told me nothing new had happened (funny how we search for any narrative to make sense of it all). Here it went. $14. $12. $11. Back to $12. Back to $11. $10. $9. Thoughtful me knew these prices were unsustainable. I told myself I would hold until it hit $0 if it had to. My account was down 70%. I'd never suffered such steep losses. I felt sick. I then couldn't sleep. I woke up, and it was still down a lot but had recovered from $7.


Watch out for the narratives.

 

I started to read more about what others were saying. What the hell was going on? Would this happen again? Yes, there was nowhere to store the oil (so the narrative went) but surely rationality would prevail. Seriously, how could you have negative prices? It was impossible to find anyone bullish in the media or otherwise. People assume if something just happened, it will occur again Goldman came out and said to expect more negative pricing. But I just couldn't believe it was so cheap. I knew it was time to buy more!

 

But then I didn't buy it. I waited for another opportunity for when I knew "the worst was over" I was so sure things would bounce back, but I didn't have the guts to buy one more time, and the opportunity passed me by forever. I let the external narrative cloud my previous judgement. But I was just so worried I couldn't think properly. Within days, it had doubled back to $15 a barrel. Then it was $20 a week later. At the time of writing it is $40 a barrel. By the time you read this, it might be $60 a barrel. Who knows? All I knew was fear and too much outside influence completely warped my view, and I failed. I just wanted to survive the calamity. While I survived to write you this, I did not do as well as I could have.


Self-belief


People often talk about having the courage of their convictions, but in trading, it's not really about courage, it's about belief, belief in yourself and your ideas and be prepared to back them, rather than talking yourself out of them, or allowing yourself to be talked out of them by others.

 

We all like to take advice and read and hear the opinions of so-called experts. But the absolute truth is that nobody really knows what going to happen next in the markets.

 

For example, nobody was predicting that an 11-year bull market in equities was going to end and end so abruptly in Q1 2020. Or that US unemployment would spiral to +14.7% in a single month.

 

Do not get me started on the rebound from the lows in March. To be bullish on the markets in April and May of 2020 was to look like you had lost your mind given the narratives surrounding COVID.

 

So-called "market legends" like Druckenmiller and Buffett told everyone it was not the time to buy. Sadly, so many would have listened.

 

Let's not forget Yogi Berra's famous saying "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future" which is why it's best to take these so-called forecasts with a grain of salt. The best that any expert can do is to make a prediction or forecast about the future. And the longer the time frame that the forecast is over, or the more unusual the circumstances under which it is made, then the more significant the room for error and the higher the chance that they are simply wrong.


Loss aversion

As humans, we are subject to subconscious emotional biases that can cloud our decision making. One such bias is loss aversion.

 

Loss aversion can hamper a trader in two distinct ways. It's most commonly associated with the practice of running losses, ignoring stops and breaking money management rules when a trader can't or won't accept that they were wrong and refused to close a losing position.

 

The other way that loss aversion can muddy the waters is in our initial decision making. You see as species we are poor judges of risk and reward; we don't calculate probabilities very well, and the upshot of this is that we do not like uncertainty.

 

To the extent that when we are faced with situations that have a series of potential outcomes, we tend to favour the outcome with the highest degree of certainty. Even if that outcome is the least beneficial to us financially. Which, of course, is the exact opposite of the risk versus reward culture that we spoke about earlier.


Fortune favours the bold.


Though we might not like to admit it, our subconscious is often trying to talk us out of taking risks. Outside influences from the media, fear, our aversion to loss and a preference for certainty may often be our worst enemy as traders.

 

As Howard Marks said, "If you're doing the same thing as everyone else, how do you expect to outperform them"?

 

There have been several once in a generation trading opportunities over the last six months. I wonder how many of us were bold enough to seize the day and take advantage?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



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Index CFD Dividends | Week 30/09/24

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Please see the table below for any upcoming dividend adjustments on indices for the week starting September 30th, 2024.



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* Please note these figures are quoted in the index point amount

 



What is a dividend?


Dividends are a portion of company earnings given to shareholders. As indices are often composed of individual shares, an index dividend pays out based on individual shares proportional to the index’s weighting.


Trading on a CFD Index does not create any ownership of the underlying stocks, or an entitlement to receive the actual dividends from these companies.

 

What is an ex-dividend date?


An ex-dividend date is the cut-off date a share must be owned in order to receive a dividend. If an investor buys a share after the ex-dividend date, then they will not be entitled to earn or pay the next round of dividends. This is usually one business day before the dividend.

 

Do dividends affect my position?


Share prices should theoretically fall by the amount of the dividend. If the company has paid the dividend with cash, then there is less cash on the balance sheet, so in theory, the company should be valued lower (by the amount of the dividend).


Due to the corresponding price movement of the stock index when the ex-dividend date is reached, Fusion must provide a 'dividend' adjustment to ensure that no trader is positively or negatively impacted by the ex-dividend event.

 

How will the dividend appear on my account?


The dividend will appear as a cash adjustment on your account. If your base currency is different from the currency the dividend is paid out in, then it will be converted at the live FX rate to your base currency.

 

Why was I charged a dividend?


Depending on your position, given you are holding your position before the ex-dividend date, you will either be paid or charged the amount based on the dividend. Traders shorting an index will pay the dividend, whereas traders who are long the index will be paid the dividend.

 

Why didn’t I receive my dividend?


You may not have received a dividend for a number of reasons:


- You entered your position after the ex-dividend date

- You are trading an index without dividend payments

- You are short an index


If you believe the reasons above do not apply to your position, please reach out to our support team at [email protected] and we’ll investigate further for you.




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The Real Cost of Forex Trading

Read time: 14 minutes.


Understanding the characteristics of the forex market is crucial for success. The concept is simple; forex trading involves buying and selling currencies with the aim of making a profit. However, many new traders dive into this market without fully grasping the real costs involved. In this guide, we'll explore the hidden expenses that can impact your trading profitability and provide tips to incorporate into your trading and avoid any unnecessary costs.

 




Understanding the Hidden Costs



Spread and Commissions


When trading forex, you'll encounter bid and ask prices. The bid price is what buyers are willing to pay, while the ask price is what sellers are asking for. The difference between these two prices is known as the spread. This spread represents the cost of trading and can vary depending on market conditions and the broker you're using. Additionally, account types such as Fusion Markets’ Zero account, don’t have a spread, but rather commissions on each trade. This can be beneficial to traders who are looking for a regular-cost solution.


Understanding the impact of spread on trading costs is essential. Even seemingly small spreads can add up over time, affecting your profitability. Different brokers offer various commission structures, including fixed or variable spreads and commission-based pricing. It's crucial to compare these structures and choose the one that aligns with your trading strategy.


Overnight Financing Fees


When holding positions overnight, you may incur overnight financing fees, also known as swap rates. These fees are charged for the privilege of keeping a position open beyond the trading day. Calculated based on the interest rate differential between the two currencies being traded, overnight financing fees can eat into your profits over time. Long-term traders should carefully consider these fees as they can significantly impact overall profitability if you’re holding a position with a negative swap for multiple days or weeks.


Slippage


Slippage occurs when the execution of a trade differs from the expected price. It can be caused by market volatility, liquidity issues, or delays in order execution. Slippage can lead to unexpected losses or reduced profits, especially during fast-moving markets or when trading large positions.


To minimise slippage, traders can use limit orders, advanced trading algorithms, or avoid trading during periods of high volatility, such as major news releases or the day rollover.




Tools for Transparent Financial Analysis


Fusion Markets Spreads Tool


Trading Journal


Keeping a detailed trading journal is essential for tracking your performance and identifying areas for improvement. Your journal should include details such as entry and exit points, trade duration, position size, and reasons for entering the trade. Analysing this data can help you identify patterns in your performance, enabling you to refine your strategy, and optimise your trading approach.


Performance Metrics


Key performance metrics such as win rate, risk-reward ratio, and drawdown are valuable tools for evaluating your trading performance. A high win rate alone does not necessarily indicate success if the risk-reward ratio is unfavourable or if drawdowns are excessive. By calculating and interpreting these metrics, you can gain insights into the effectiveness of your trading strategy and make adjustments accordingly.


For example, a trader might have a win rate of 70% but still not be profitable. By analysing their performance metrics, the trader can identify that they have an inadequate risk-reward ratio; meaning that their losing trades are, on average, larger in value than their winning trades.


Historical Data Analysis


By leveraging past market movements and trends, traders gain valuable insights for informed decision-making. Whether assessing the viability of a trading strategy or gauging potential risks, historical data provides a rich tapestry of information.


Using historical data, traders can back-test strategies. Back-testing involves testing a trading strategy using historical data to see how it would have performed under past market conditions.


By incorporating historical data into risk management practices, a trader can better anticipate potential risks and adjust their strategies accordingly.


In the ever-changing world of trading, historical data becomes like a guiding light, preparing us for what could happen, based on previous events. In turn, this knowledge allows traders to make more informed decisions. You can view Fusion’s Live and Historical spreads to stay informed.



Tips for Transparent Financial Analysis


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Set Realistic Profit Expectations


It's essential to set realistic profit expectations based on your trading strategy and risk tolerance. Avoid overestimating potential profits and understand the relationship between risk and reward. Remember that trading involves inherent risks, and losses are inevitable.


Practice Risk Management


Implementing proper risk management techniques is crucial for preserving your capital and long-term success. This includes setting stop-loss orders to limit potential losses and employing position sizing strategies to manage risk exposure effectively.


Managing open trades by tightening your stop as the derivative moves in your intended direction can also boost your R-multiple and improve your return over the long-run.


Continuously Educate Yourself


The forex market is dynamic and constantly evolving, so staying up to date on market trends and developments is essential. Continuously educate yourself through books, online courses, and seminars to refine your skills and stay ahead of the curve.


Choosing Reputable Brokers with Transparent Fee Structures


Selecting a reputable broker with transparent fee structures is paramount. Before committing to a broker, thoroughly research their reputation, regulatory compliance, and fee structures. Don't hesitate to ask questions and seek clarification on costs to ensure transparency and avoid unexpected expenses. 



Conclusion


Navigating the hidden costs of forex trading requires a combination of knowledge, skill, and diligence. By understanding the various expenses involved, utilising tools for transparent financial analysis, and practising sound risk management, new traders can increase their chances of success in the forex market. Continuously educate yourself, choose reputable brokers, and always prioritise transparency in your trading endeavours.


If you want to know more about Fusion Markets, our products, fee structures and services, please contact a member of our friendly team or visit our live chat on our site. 

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