Why Your Stop Losses Are (Probably) Wrong

Read Time: 6 minutes

Donald Trump’s return to Office as the 47th President of the United States marks a significant political and economic shift, creating both opportunities and challenges in the forex market. 

Trumps second-term agenda, marked by aggressive trade policies, tax reforms, and deregulation, has the potential to impact global markets in complex ways, especially the foreign exchange market. Fear not; there will be plenty of opportunities to accompany any disruptions that the Trump Administration will bring.

One of Trump’s most critical economic agenda’s is his renewed focus on tariffs. As during his first term, Trump has emphasised targeting China, with plans to raise tariffs on Chinese imports by 10–15%, ultimately increasing tensions between the two nations.

Why does this matter?

China’s economy has direct and indirect influences on markets, primarily through global trade. In 2024, China's foreign trade reached new heights, with total goods imports and exports amounting to 43.85 trillion yuan (approximately USD $6.1 trillion), marking a 5% increase from the previous year. Exports grew by 7.1% to 25.45 trillion yuan, while imports saw a 2.3% rise to 18.39 trillion yuan.

The trade surplus expanded significantly, reaching a record $992 billion, driven by a surge in exports, particularly to the U.S. So, you can imagine how Trump’s focus on tariffs could affect this.

Other proposals include broad tariff hikes, with some extreme scenarios suggesting across-the-board levies of up to 10% or a staggering 60% on Chinese goods. Such moves, while aimed at protecting American industries, carry substantial implications for global trade flows – which will of course affect currency rates.

The U.S. dollar, often a safe-haven currency as we know it, has provided an impressive bull-run recently;

Figure 1-DXY (US Dollar Index) Daily Chart

There are essentially two scenarios:

1. A weaker USD
   
   In his first term as US President, Trump openly said the dollar (USD) was too high. And now, in his second term, he’s singing the same tune. This could provide some fantastic opportunities for us forex traders – especially when currencies such as the AUD and NZD are severely undervalued.
   
   
2. Continued dollar strength
   
   We could see further strength if global investors react to heightened uncertainty and anticipated inflationary pressures.

Overall, it’s likely that continued tariff increases will disrupt supply chains and weigh on U.S. economic growth, potentially weakening the dollar in the long term.

In addition to trade, Trump’s fiscal policies have the potential to impact currency prices. The extension of the 2017 tax cuts, along with potential new tax breaks, is expected to stimulate economic growth in the short term but could also widen fiscal deficits, already exceeding 7.5% of GDP. Higher government borrowing to finance these deficits may push up U.S. Treasury yields, attracting foreign capital and boosting the dollar. Yet, sustained fiscal imbalances could lead to long-term concerns over debt sustainability, ultimately eroding confidence in the greenback.

The Trump Administration’s approach to deregulation is yet another factor likely to influence forex prices. Trump’s plan to roll back Biden-era regulations across sectors such as energy, finance, and manufacturing aims to reduce costs for businesses and encourage investment. This deregulation, in addition to tax cuts, could lift business confidence and support equity markets, creating a risk-on environment. In such scenarios, higher-yielding currencies such as our Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar could potentially benefit from improved sentiment and rising commodity prices.

How to Trade Trump 2.0

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Signals

So far, Trump has been on a war path signing off executive orders and pushing to make change. Given that currency markets are influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical events, it’s imperative to keep an eye on the headlines for potential shifts in monetary and fiscal policies. In doing this, we can stay one step ahead.

Look for Hedging Opportunities

Trump’s presidency previously brought unexpected shifts in international relations, creating geopolitical uncertainty that could impact the forex market; during such times, safe-haven currencies such as the CHF or JPY are typically reliable options. Additionally, if Trump reinstates policies that favour U.S. energy independence, oil-exporting nations such as Canada (CAD) or Russia (RUB) may see increased currency volatility tied to changes in commodity markets.

Be Prepared and Adapt

Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve for maintaining high interest rates during his first term suggests potential attempts to influence monetary policy, making the Fed’s reactions critical for USD movements. Policies promoting growth or supply-side inflation could drive rate adjustments, adding to forex market volatility. As traders, we need to be prepared – we know Trump is a bit of a loose cannon, but we also need to adapt to changes in market structure and macroeconomics.

News and Risk Management

Taking all of this into account, we traders need to keep one eye on the news headlines, and one eye on the markets. Stay up-to-date with major news events and avoid trading within close proximity of them, reducing exposure on any open trades.

In the months ahead, expect volatility and surprises. Trump has never been more motivated in improving things for the United States. Given that the greenback is the most important currency to watch, we traders need to be prepared for anything that he throws at us. Traders need to embrace the volatility, identify trends, and keep an eye on the macro-economic influencers that ultimately drive the pricing of currencies.

We provide our clients with an economic calendar and other tools to succeed in the markets – find out more by clicking here.

Read Time: 8 Minutes

Throughout the year of 2024, we’ve observed some significant economic shifts and global events that have influenced market movements in their own way. Central bank policies were front and centre, with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan steering market sentiment through interest rate decisions and inflation management.

Geopolitical events further intensified market volatility, from the U.S. presidential election to regional conflicts and global trade renegotiations. These developments highlighted the forex market's sensitivity to political transitions and international agreements – providing some great trading opportunities along the way, on the back of the resulting volatility.

There were talks of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and the integration of AI-driven trading tools, which brought us both opportunities and challenges, fundamentally altering how traders approach the market.

Economic indicators like inflation trends, employment data, and GDP growth provided critical insights into currency dynamics, while liquidity patterns and institutional trading flows shaped the forex market 2024 behaviour.

Table of Contents

Central Banks & Economic Indicators

Economic indicators continued to determine forex market 2024 movements. Inflation trends, employment data, and GDP growth became focus points for traders in their market analysis. However, central banks were the driving forces behind many of 2024’s forex movements. One of the key influencers being the Federal Reserve (FED), which continued to balance inflation management with economic growth. Its policy decisions caused notable fluctuations in the dollar index.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a measured approach, focusing on stabilising the eurozone whilst observing varying economic growth rates. Its quantitative easing measures influenced liquidity trends and regional currency movements.

Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England faced challenges as the UK’s post-Brexit economy dealt with a persistent level of inflation.

The Bank of Japan remained committed to ultra-loose monetary policies, maintaining pressure on the yen – of which was a prime contender in the carry-trade space. Meanwhile, several emerging economies grappled with inflationary spikes, prompting central banks in countries such as Brazil and India to tighten policies.

Inflation remained a dominant theme, with central banks in developed and emerging markets adjusting their policies to manage rising prices. The U.S. inflation rate, in particular, was a critical driver of Fed decisions, indirectly shaping the dollar's global standing.

Whilst the U.S. demonstrated moderate growth, China’s slower-than-expected recovery impacted commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD. In addition, trade balance data highlighted the fragile state of international trade, further complicating currency dynamics.

Geopolitical Influencers

One of the year's most impactful events was the U.S. presidential election, which drove volatility across global markets. Policy discussions on trade agreements and economic reforms led to fluctuations in the USD, particularly against currencies like the euro and yen. With President Donald Trump still in the process of taking office, we can expect to see further geopolitical developments and forex price movements as we head into 2025.

Regional conflicts and political transitions also applied pressure on currencies. A key one being the tensions in Eastern Europe which influenced the euro's trajectory, whilst political instability in the Middle East affected oil-exporting nations' currencies such as the Russian Ruble and Canadian Dollar. In addition to this, trade agreements, such as renegotiations between key Asia-Pacific economies, created ripple effects in commodity-linked currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars.

Forex Market 2024 – Behaviour Analysis

The forex market 2024 exhibited unique behavioural trends, characterised by pronounced volatility and evolving liquidity patterns. Traders observed spikes in volatility following key central bank announcements and geopolitical events, which created both challenges and opportunities.

Liquidity trends shifted significantly, with institutional trading flows dominating high-volume trading periods. Cross-border capital movements also surged, driven by divergent economic recoveries among regions. For instance, the U.S. attracted significant foreign investment due to its relatively stable economic outlook, bolstering the dollar’s strength against other major currencies.

Technological advancements further influenced market behaviour. AI-driven trading platforms improved trade execution efficiency, while blockchain technology introduced greater transparency in cross-border transactions. The digital currency evolution has added another layer of complexity, as traders adapted to the increasing integration of CBDCs into mainstream markets.

These behavioural insights reveal the dynamic nature of the forex market in 2024, emphasising the need for traders to remain agile and leverage advanced tools for navigating this ever-changing landscape.

A Technical Recap

In addition to observing the fundamental influencers of 2024, we can put it all into context by observing the daily chart for the year.

 

DXY 

EURUSD

As expected, the US Dollar movements were inversely correlated with the EURUSD reaching a high of 1.12140 and a low of 1.03332. 

AUD & NZD 

Our Aussie dollar has provided some fantastic trading opportunities this year – with range-bound strategies taking advantage of Q1 & Q2, before trend-following strategies amplified those returns with the increased volatility in Q3 & Q4, resulting in a high of 0.69424 for the year, and a low of 0.63482. 

Across the ditch, the Kiwi Dollar has performed very similarly, with a high of 0.63788 and low of 0.57971. 

 

GBP

The trend was your friend for the GBP this year – providing a long-term bullish trend, before reversing to a now-downward trend. A prior low for the year at 1.22996 was met with a resulting high of 1.34342 at the conclusion of the bullish trend. 

CHF & JPY

Love it or hate it, the Swiss Franc was a trend traders’ dream this year, with a bullish trend providing a high of 0.92244, followed by a resulting down trend reaching a low of 0.83744.

We all know the story with the Yen this year, including multiple instances of intervention by the BoJ. Whether you’re taking advantage of the carry trade, or simply riding the trend, we saw textbook trending reaching a high of 161.951 and a low of 139.579 for the year. 

Conclusion – Lessons From 2024

The 2024 forex market has been a year of developments, from central bank policies, economic indicators, geopolitical events, to technological advancements...

Disclaimer: Economic conditions are complex and rapidly evolving. This overview provides an educational perspective based on available information as of late 2024.