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Why you don't want to be lucky

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On Why making money on your first few trades may not be the best outcome

 


“The potential for temporary success by pure luck beguiles people into thinking that trading is a lot easier than it is. The potential for even temporary success doesn’t exist in any other profession.

 

 If you have never trained as a surgeon, the probability of your performing successful brain surgery is zero.

 

 If you have never picked up a violin, your chances of playing successful solo violin in front of the New York Philharmonic is zero.

 

It is just that trading has this quirk that allows some people to be successful temporarily without true skill or an edge—and that fools people into mistaking luck for skill”

 

- Quote from "What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars" by Jim Paul and Brendan Moynihan

 


Luck or skill?

The quote above, which is from the true story of the rise and fall of Jim Paul, sums up trading. It’s an occupation that you don’t need any specific qualifications to pursue.

 

However, unlike most “unskilled“ roles, the potential rewards in trading are substantial. In fact, they are open-ended or without limit if you prefer.

 

Of course, the key word in that sentence is potential because until they are realised those rewards will remain out of reach, tantalisingly close but just beyond our grasp.

 

Realising those rewards and doing so regularly will usually require hours of dedicated study and application, combined with the ability to follow a set of rules and the discipline to apply them every time you trade.

 

There is an old saying among traders and gamblers that they “would rather be lucky than good”, but this is wrong because as Messrs. Paul and Moynihan point out, people are very quick to mistake luck for skill.

Falling into a trap


To do that is to fall into the trap of outcome bias that is judging the success of an event or action purely on the results generated, rather than the journey taken to get to that endpoint.

 

Annie Duke, the famed poker player and author of “Thinking in Bets” calls this “Resulting”.

 

Yes, trading is about making money, but more importantly, it’s about making money without taking on excessive risk. It's all well and good picking up nickels and dimes you find in the street, but you wouldn't (or shouldn't) want to do this in front of a steamroller.

 

The ability to recognise, measure and quantify risk is a key skill for any would-be trader. Unfortunately, it’s a skill that must be learned the hard way, which in trading means losing money.

 

Harsh lessons

Losses are a fact of life in trading. They are part and parcel of the job description, and the trader must come to terms with that, and the sooner the better.

 

Here's the thing. In an ideal world, those new to trading should experience several consecutive losing trades. They should feel the pain and disappointment of seeing their money disappear and their ideas going up in smoke, however, by learning from their experiences, they should go on to be a better trader.

 

This may sound harsh, but there is no substitute for having skin in the game and losing money. It focuses the mind like very little else.

 

If we have correctly approached the markets from the outset (that is, conservatively), we should be risking only a small portion of our capital on any one trade, and only having a limited number of trades open any one time. Then these losses will be akin to scratches and scrapes and not mortal wounds.

 

 

A biased picture

 

Therein lies the crux of the dilemma we face as traders. If you are lucky and you make money straight away from your first few trades, you can develop a false sense of security.

 

You will overestimate your own abilities and fall victim to another bias, that of anchoring.

 

When our mind tricks us into anchoring, we carry an incorrect assumption or set of assumptions forward into future decision making. In turn, this can lead to availability bias where you make decisions and form opinions, based solely on the information in front of you, rather than considering the bigger picture.

 

To put this into context, let's imagine that you start trading in the live markets and you are fortunate to have US$ 10,000 in your account.

 

For your first trade, you take a “flyer” by going long two lots of an FX pair (that's US$200,000 of underlying notional value) You trade without a stop loss and then you head off for nine holes on the golf course.

 

By the time you return to your desk, the markets have shifted after a key central bank announcement.

 

By complete chance, because that's what it is, the markets have moved in your favour and you close out your position for a tidy profit.

 

That might sound like a good day's work, but it’s a disaster or at least a disaster in the making simply because you broke so many rules around money and risk management.

 

You didn't consider the leverage involved in the trade, the relative size of the position to your account balance and by not having a stop loss on the trade, you put all your trading capital at risk.

 

Finally, you didn’t check the calendar to see if any key data was due out and you left your position unattended while you played golf.

 

Make money but in the right way

We are not saying that we want you to lose money, on the contrary as your broker we would like your account to grow and for you to recommend us to your friends and family.


Ideally, as your partner in the markets, we want you to make money in a sustainable, systematic and thoughtful fashion, one that rewards best practice and encourages good habits, not bad. A trader placing small trades across ten years is worth far more than an easy-come easy-go trader who treats it like a visit to a casino.

 

A little discomfort in your first few trades can go a long way to achieving just that.

 

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Please see the table below for any upcoming dividend adjustments on indices for the week starting September 16th, 2024.



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* Please note these figures are quoted in the index point amount

 



What is a dividend?


Dividends are a portion of company earnings given to shareholders. As indices are often composed of individual shares, an index dividend pays out based on individual shares proportional to the index’s weighting.


Trading on a CFD Index does not create any ownership of the underlying stocks, or an entitlement to receive the actual dividends from these companies.

 

What is an ex-dividend date?


An ex-dividend date is the cut-off date a share must be owned in order to receive a dividend. If an investor buys a share after the ex-dividend date, then they will not be entitled to earn or pay the next round of dividends. This is usually one business day before the dividend.

 

Do dividends affect my position?


Share prices should theoretically fall by the amount of the dividend. If the company has paid the dividend with cash, then there is less cash on the balance sheet, so in theory, the company should be valued lower (by the amount of the dividend).


Due to the corresponding price movement of the stock index when the ex-dividend date is reached, Fusion must provide a 'dividend' adjustment to ensure that no trader is positively or negatively impacted by the ex-dividend event.

 

How will the dividend appear on my account?


The dividend will appear as a cash adjustment on your account. If your base currency is different from the currency the dividend is paid out in, then it will be converted at the live FX rate to your base currency.

 

Why was I charged a dividend?


Depending on your position, given you are holding your position before the ex-dividend date, you will either be paid or charged the amount based on the dividend. Traders shorting an index will pay the dividend, whereas traders who are long the index will be paid the dividend.

 

Why didn’t I receive my dividend?


You may not have received a dividend for a number of reasons:


- You entered your position after the ex-dividend date

- You are trading an index without dividend payments

- You are short an index


If you believe the reasons above do not apply to your position, please reach out to our support team at [email protected] and we’ll investigate further for you.




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The Real Cost of Forex Trading
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Understanding the characteristics of the forex market is crucial for success. The concept is simple; forex trading involves buying and selling currencies with the aim of making a profit. However, many new traders dive into this market without fully grasping the real costs involved. In this guide, we'll explore the hidden expenses that can impact your trading profitability and provide tips to incorporate into your trading and avoid any unnecessary costs.

 

Table of Contents




Understanding the Hidden Costs



Spread and Commissions


When trading forex, you'll encounter bid and ask prices. The bid price is what buyers are willing to pay, while the ask price is what sellers are asking for. The difference between these two prices is known as the spread. This spread represents the cost of trading and can vary depending on market conditions and the broker you're using. Additionally, account types such as Fusion Markets’ Zero account, don’t have a spread, but rather commissions on each trade. This can be beneficial to traders who are looking for a regular-cost solution.


Understanding the impact of spread on trading costs is essential. Even seemingly small spreads can add up over time, affecting your profitability. Different brokers offer various commission structures, including fixed or variable spreads and commission-based pricing. It's crucial to compare these structures and choose the one that aligns with your trading strategy.


Overnight Financing Fees


When holding positions overnight, you may incur overnight financing fees, also known as swap rates. These fees are charged for the privilege of keeping a position open beyond the trading day. Calculated based on the interest rate differential between the two currencies being traded, overnight financing fees can eat into your profits over time. Long-term traders should carefully consider these fees as they can significantly impact overall profitability if you’re holding a position with a negative swap for multiple days or weeks.


Slippage


Slippage occurs when the execution of a trade differs from the expected price. It can be caused by market volatility, liquidity issues, or delays in order execution. Slippage can lead to unexpected losses or reduced profits, especially during fast-moving markets or when trading large positions.


To minimise slippage, traders can use limit orders, advanced trading algorithms, or avoid trading during periods of high volatility, such as major news releases or the day rollover.




Tools for Transparent Financial Analysis


Fusion Markets Spreads Tool


Trading Journal


Keeping a detailed trading journal is essential for tracking your performance and identifying areas for improvement. Your journal should include details such as entry and exit points, trade duration, position size, and reasons for entering the trade. Analysing this data can help you identify patterns in your performance, enabling you to refine your strategy, and optimise your trading approach.


Performance Metrics


Key performance metrics such as win rate, risk-reward ratio, and drawdown are valuable tools for evaluating your trading performance. A high win rate alone does not necessarily indicate success if the risk-reward ratio is unfavourable or if drawdowns are excessive. By calculating and interpreting these metrics, you can gain insights into the effectiveness of your trading strategy and make adjustments accordingly.


For example, a trader might have a win rate of 70% but still not be profitable. By analysing their performance metrics, the trader can identify that they have an inadequate risk-reward ratio; meaning that their losing trades are, on average, larger in value than their winning trades.


Historical Data Analysis


By leveraging past market movements and trends, traders gain valuable insights for informed decision-making. Whether assessing the viability of a trading strategy or gauging potential risks, historical data provides a rich tapestry of information.


Using historical data, traders can back-test strategies. Back-testing involves testing a trading strategy using historical data to see how it would have performed under past market conditions.


By incorporating historical data into risk management practices, a trader can better anticipate potential risks and adjust their strategies accordingly.


In the ever-changing world of trading, historical data becomes like a guiding light, preparing us for what could happen, based on previous events. In turn, this knowledge allows traders to make more informed decisions. You can view Fusion’s Live and Historical spreads to stay informed.



Tips for Transparent Financial Analysis


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Set Realistic Profit Expectations


It's essential to set realistic profit expectations based on your trading strategy and risk tolerance. Avoid overestimating potential profits and understand the relationship between risk and reward. Remember that trading involves inherent risks, and losses are inevitable.


Practice Risk Management


Implementing proper risk management techniques is crucial for preserving your capital and long-term success. This includes setting stop-loss orders to limit potential losses and employing position sizing strategies to manage risk exposure effectively.


Managing open trades by tightening your stop as the derivative moves in your intended direction can also boost your R-multiple and improve your return over the long-run.


Continuously Educate Yourself


The forex market is dynamic and constantly evolving, so staying up to date on market trends and developments is essential. Continuously educate yourself through books, online courses, and seminars to refine your skills and stay ahead of the curve.


Choosing Reputable Brokers with Transparent Fee Structures


Selecting a reputable broker with transparent fee structures is paramount. Before committing to a broker, thoroughly research their reputation, regulatory compliance, and fee structures. Don't hesitate to ask questions and seek clarification on costs to ensure transparency and avoid unexpected expenses. 



Conclusion


Navigating the hidden costs of forex trading requires a combination of knowledge, skill, and diligence. By understanding the various expenses involved, utilising tools for transparent financial analysis, and practising sound risk management, new traders can increase their chances of success in the forex market. Continuously educate yourself, choose reputable brokers, and always prioritise transparency in your trading endeavours.


If you want to know more about Fusion Markets, our products, fee structures and services, please contact a member of our friendly team or visit our live chat on our site. 

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