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EUR/CHF: An Overview

Fusion Markets

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The forex symbol EUR/CHF indicates how much the Euro (abbreviated as EUR) is worth in relation to the Swiss Franc (abbreviated as CHF), and how many Swiss Francs you need to buy one Euro. The pair is nicknamed “Euro-swissie” in the FX market.

 

As a cross-currency pair, EUR and CHF are traded directly, without the need to convert to a base currency first. This is also commonly known as currency pairs that do not involve the US Dollar (USD). The EUR/CHF currency pair is among the most popular cross-currencies in the forex market.

 

In this article we breakdown the history of these currencies, their dynamics, and how you can trade this pair. 


For more currency pair breakdowns, check out our USD/JPY Overview.

 

Currency background


The Euro (EUR)

 

As of 2022, 19 out of the 27 member countries of the European Union (EU) use EUR as their official currency.

 

Since its debut in 1999 and entry into circulation in 2002, EUR has become one of the most widely used currencies for financial transactions worldwide, often second only (or at times at par with) USD.

 

Owing to its credibility, EUR has also, until recently, been a relatively stable currency. This stability has allowed it to extend its importance well beyond the EU. Over 50 other countries and territories globally have adopted the EUR as currency or have pegged their currencies to EUR. Furthermore, it accounts for over 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, second only to USD.


The Swiss Franc (CHF)

 

CHF is the official currency of Switzerland, as well as of Liechtenstein. In contrast to EUR, CHF traces its origin over a century back to 1850.

 

CHF is among the top ten most traded currencies globally. It has long been considered a safe-haven currency, owing to the stability of the Swiss economy and its political neutrality. However, unlike EUR, no other country uses CHF as a peg for their own currency.

 

What to consider in trading EUR/CHF

 

Compared to most currency pairs in the market, EUR/CHF experiences fewer price movements. The trends are typically slower and more stable.

 

Several factors affect the prices of currency pairs in the forex market. For most currency pairs, price movements are mostly tied to economic and geopolitical circumstances, both locally and globally.

 

Here are some factors that drive EUR/CHF movements:

 

Economy

 

The EU, as a single market, is one of the largest economies in the world and one of the three most prominent players in global trade. It is Switzerland’s primary trading partner, with the EU accounting for over 60% of Swiss imports and receiving over 40% of Swiss exports. The economic situation in the Eurozone has a history of affecting the Swiss economy, such as in the 2010s.

 

If you’re trading EUR-based pairs, you can keep up to date with happenings in the EU economy through European Commission economic reports, including economic forecasts and reviews, as well as Fusion's Economic Calendar. The European Central Bank also publishes economic bulletins that provide insights on monetary policy, a key determinant of currency strength.

 

Swiss policies

 

The Swiss National Bank, which issues CHF, has traditionally been non-interventionist. Several of its moves, however, have impacted currency markets. In 2011, it pegged the CHF to EUR, in a move to help Swiss businesses to increase their profitability. A few years later, in 2015, it abandoned the peg, stunning investors, causing market turmoil, and leaving a profound impact on the EUR.

 

EUR/CHF chart of Euro Peg and Depeg

EUR/CHF 2011-2015 Weekly Time Frame


Global risks

 

Investors on the move to mitigate global economic risks are drawn to CHF due to its solid reputation for financial stability. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis in the late 2000s, widespread buying of CHF saw a 20% depreciation of EUR to CHF.

 

Geopolitical conditions

 

Investors also turn to CHF in times of political uncertainty in the EU, such as during the Greek sovereign debt crisis following the 2008 financial crisis. Demand for CHF had also soared during the Brexit negotiations, with investors using it as a hedge for protection against Brexit.


Movements in USD

 

A distinct advantage of EUR/CHF is its independence from USD. As they can be directly traded with each other, the pair isolates traders from USD-related volatilities. 


Conclusion 


The EU is one of the largest economies in the world, with EUR used in a majority of global transactions. The EU and Switzerland are not only geographically close, but also share strong economic ties, such as trade relations.

 

The EUR/CHF as a cross-currency pair experiences fewer price movements, with less volatile trends compared to other forex pairs. Both currencies are credible, with CHF long considered a safe-haven currency. Even during the COVID-19 global pandemic, investors have trusted CHF.


If you're looking to trade EUR/CHF, you'll be able to get ultra-tight spreads and $2.25 commissions per lot with Fusion Markets. Don't wait on the sidelines, be part of the action.

 

 

 

 


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Market Analysis
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Strategic View: Planning For 2025

Read Time: 7 - 9 Minutes.


There’s already been some fantastic volatility in the forex market this year – mainly attributed to Trump, but also ongoing discussions around monetary policy in key economies. 


Even if you’re a short-term trader, it’s important to look ahead and form a strategy for the year. There’s currently a convergence of high U.S. real yields, central bank policies, and geopolitical risks that all traders need to keep on their radar. 


In this post, we will discuss the current themes for 2025, as well as identify ways in which we could capitalise on them. 


 

  1. The U.S. Dollar’s Strength and Global FX Implications 

The dominant theme in the FX market this year is the continued strength of the U.S. dollar (USD), fuelled by not only by Trump, but also high real interest rates and economic divergences.


Following what’s called the "red sweep" in the 2024 U.S. elections, markets have shifted expectations towards persistent USD strength in the first half of the year. 


There’s several factors contributing to this trend: 


  • High U.S. Real Yields: Elevated interest rates in the U.S. continue to attract capital inflows, ultimately reinforcing the greenback’s strength. 

  • Diverging Monetary Policies: Whilst the Federal Reserve remains cautious about rate cuts, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) are expected to ease policy further. 

  • Tariff Risks and Trade Policies: Anyone watching the headlines would be aware of Trump’s recent rampage on tariffs – these new tariffs could further support the USD by dampening foreign currency demand. 

Volatility Strategies will be the play here, with policy uncertainty and trade negotiations in the air, options-based strategies such as straddles or volatility swaps on USD pairs could become very attractive. 

 

2. Carry Trade Opportunities in High-Yielding Currencies 


With real interest rate differentials widening, carry trades remain a key theme in 2025. The market is favouring currencies with strong yield advantages, such as the U.S. dollar and select emerging market (EM) currencies. 


Key High-Yield Currencies: 

  • USD: The dollar’s rate advantage makes it a prime funding currency. 

  • CAD: Despite trade risks, Canada’s interest rate environment remains somewhat supportive. 

  • NOK: The Norwegian Krone has shown improved carry appeal, as a result of Norges Bank resisting an aggressive approach to rate cuts. 



Trading Strategies: 

  • Long USD/MXN or USD/ZAR: With emerging market currencies under pressure due to trade risks and high U.S. rates, going long USD against the Mexican Peso (MXN) and South African Rand (ZAR) could prove to be profitable. 

  • Short CHF or JPY in Carry Trades: Both the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen are likely to underperform against high-yielding currencies due to negative real rates. This could provide some attractive carry trade opportunities. 

  • NOK/SEK Call Spread: As Norway’s interest rate stance is firmer than Sweden’s, NOK/SEK longs could offer potential upside. 

 


3. The Euro’s Structural Weakness and Political Uncertainty 


The euro (EUR) remains vulnerable this year due to a combination of economic underperformance and political instability. 


Key Risks for the EUR: 

  • Interest Rate Divergence: The ECB is expected to continue cutting rates, whereas the Fed remains on hold, for now. 

  • Trade War Exposure: Europe is a primary target for new U.S. tariffs, which could add to the weakening of the Euro. 

  • German and French Political Uncertainty: Domestic political risks, including German elections and policy uncertainty in France, add further downside pressure to the euro. 



Trade Idea: 


Short EUR/JPY 


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Figure 1 – EURJPY Weekly Chart 


Given Japan’s relatively stable policy outlook and Europe’s tariff risk, going short EUR/JPY remains a key trade. 



Long EUR Volatility 


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Figure 2 – Euro Volatility Index, daily chart 


For options traders, the euro’s downside risks make long volatility positions an attractive hedge against geopolitical shocks. 

 


4. Commodity Currencies 


Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and Norwegian Krone face some unique opportunities in 2025. 



The Oil Market’s Influence on FX 


Analysts are expecting crude oil markets to remain tight, with OPEC aiming to balance the supply and demand. In doing so, this could lend support to oil-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK, provided that global demand remains resilient. 

Gold and Safe-Haven Flows 




A graph showing the price of a stock market

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Figure 3 – XAUUSD (gold), daily chart 




Gold prices have surged in early 2025driven by fears of tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and central bank buying. Whilst this supports the Australian Dollar to some extent, rising U.S. yields could ultimately cap AUD/USD upside. 



Trade Ideas: 

  • Long USD/CAD on Tariff Risks: The potential for broad U.S. tariffs on Canada could weaken the CAD, making long USD/CAD a defensive play over the long-term, especially given the bullish strength of the USD. 

  • Long Gold as a Hedge: With tariff risks escalating, gold remains a strong hedge opportunity against geopolitical uncertainty. 

 



5. Geopolitical Crossroads and FX Volatility 


Beyond macroeconomic fundamentals, geopolitical risks continue to hold the FX market at ransom in 2025. There’s potential for volatility to stem from: 


  • U.S.-China Trade Tensions: Renewed tensions from Trump could weigh on the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and ultimately spill over to other Asian FX markets, such as the AUD and NZD. 

  • European Political Shocks: Elections in Germany and France could provide sharp moves in the EUR. 

  • Middle East and Energy Market Risks: Any disruptions to oil supply chains would adversely affect energy-linked currencies, such as the CAD. 

Trade Idea: 


Long USD/CNH 


A line graph with black and purple lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect. 

Figure 4 – USDCNH, weekly chart 



Continued pressure on the Chinese economy and potential U.S. tariffs could push USD/CNH higher. It would be wise to look for long opportunities above 7.375. 

 



Final Thoughts 


As we take on 2025, having an understanding of the key macroeconomic drivers, central bank policies, and geopolitical risks is no longer ideal, but necessary. 


  • USD strength remains a dominant theme, with potential for reversals in Q3 & Q4 this year.. providing that the Fed pivots. 

  • Carry trade opportunities favour high-yielding currencies, whilst funding currencies like JPY and CHF face ongoing pressure. 

  • The euro still remains vulnerable as a result of policy divergences and political uncertainty. 

  • Commodity currencies require a more careful approach – with CAD and NOK benefiting from oil strength, whilst AUD could be exposed to further downside risks. 

  • Geopolitical tensions add more ammunition to FX volatility – with the potential to either create more trading opportunities, or disrupt market structure.  


By keeping these key themes in mind, we’re able to form a more structured approach to 2025. Whilst there’s been some appealing moves in the market so far, there’s still plenty of room for trend changes and unexpected volatility. The key going forward is to stick to your trading plan, but expect the unexpected – especially as we begin to see the economic effects of Trumps’ executive orders. 


If you haven’t done so already, check out our post on Economic Indicators here. 


20/02/2025
Market Analysis
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Trump’s Return: What Forex Traders Need to Know About the New Administration

Read Time: 6 minutes


Donald Trump’s return to Office as the 47th President of the United States marks a significant political and economic shift, creating both opportunities and challenges in the forex market. 


Trumps second-term agenda, marked by aggressive trade policies, tax reforms, and deregulation, has the potential to impact global markets in complex ways, especially the foreign exchange market. Fear not; there will be plenty of opportunities to accompany any disruptions that the Trump Administration will bring.

One of Trump’s most critical economic agenda’s is his renewed focus on tariffs. As during his first term, Trump has emphasised targeting China, with plans to raise tariffs on Chinese imports by 10–15%, ultimately increasing tensions between the two nations.



Why does this matter?


China’s economy has direct and indirect influences on markets, primarily through global trade. In 2024, China's foreign trade reached new heights, with total goods imports and exports amounting to 43.85 trillion yuan (approximately USD $6.1 trillion), marking a 5% increase from the previous year. Exports grew by 7.1% to 25.45 trillion yuan, while imports saw a 2.3% rise to 18.39 trillion yuan.

The trade surplus expanded significantly, reaching a record $992 billion, driven by a surge in exports, particularly to the U.S. So, you can imagine how Trump’s focus on tariffs could affect this.

Other proposals include broad tariff hikes, with some extreme scenarios suggesting across-the-board levies of up to 10% or a staggering 60% on Chinese goods. Such moves, while aimed at protecting American industries, carry substantial implications for global trade flows – which will of course affect currency rates.

The U.S. dollar, often a safe-haven currency as we know it, has provided an impressive bull-run recently;

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Figure 1-DXY (US Dollar Index) Daily Chart



There are essentially two scenarios:

  1. A weaker USD

    In his first term as US President, Trump openly said the dollar (USD) was too high. And now, in his second term, he’s singing the same tune. This could provide some fantastic opportunities for us forex traders – especially when currencies such as the AUD and NZD are severely undervalued.

  2. Continued dollar strength

    We could see further strength if global investors react to heightened uncertainty and anticipated inflationary pressures.

Overall, it’s likely that continued tariff increases will disrupt supply chains and weigh on U.S. economic growth, potentially weakening the dollar in the long term.

In addition to trade, Trump’s fiscal policies have the potential to impact currency prices. The extension of the 2017 tax cuts, along with potential new tax breaks, is expected to stimulate economic growth in the short term but could also widen fiscal deficits, already exceeding 7.5% of GDP. Higher government borrowing to finance these deficits may push up U.S. Treasury yields, attracting foreign capital and boosting the dollar. Yet, sustained fiscal imbalances could lead to long-term concerns over debt sustainability, ultimately eroding confidence in the greenback.

The Trump Administration’s approach to deregulation is yet another factor likely to influence forex prices. Trump’s plan to roll back Biden-era regulations across sectors such as energy, finance, and manufacturing aims to reduce costs for businesses and encourage investment. This deregulation, in addition to tax cuts, could lift business confidence and support equity markets, creating a risk-on environment. In such scenarios, higher-yielding currencies such as our Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar could potentially benefit from improved sentiment and rising commodity prices.


How to Trade Trump 2.0


Monetary and Fiscal Policy Signals


So far, Trump has been on a war path signing off executive orders and pushing to make change. Given that currency markets are influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical events, it’s imperative to keep an eye on the headlines for potential shifts in monetary and fiscal policies. In doing this, we can stay one step ahead.


Look for Hedging Opportunities


Trump’s presidency previously brought unexpected shifts in international relations, creating geopolitical uncertainty that could impact the forex market; during such times, safe-haven currencies such as the CHF or JPY are typically reliable options. Additionally, if Trump reinstates policies that favour U.S. energy independence, oil-exporting nations such as Canada (CAD) or Russia (RUB) may see increased currency volatility tied to changes in commodity markets.


Be Prepared and Adapt


Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve for maintaining high interest rates during his first term suggests potential attempts to influence monetary policy, making the Fed’s reactions critical for USD movements. Policies promoting growth or supply-side inflation could drive rate adjustments, adding to forex market volatility. As traders, we need to be prepared – we know Trump is a bit of a loose cannon, but we also need to adapt to changes in market structure and macroeconomics.


News and Risk Management


Taking all of this into account, we traders need to keep one eye on the news headlines, and one eye on the markets. Stay up-to-date with major news events and avoid trading within close proximity of them, reducing exposure on any open trades.

In the months ahead, expect volatility and surprises. Trump has never been more motivated in improving things for the United States. Given that the greenback is the most important currency to watch, we traders need to be prepared for anything that he throws at us. Traders need to embrace the volatility, identify trends, and keep an eye on the macro-economic influencers that ultimately drive the pricing of currencies.

We provide our clients with an economic calendar and other tools to succeed in the markets – find out more by clicking here.
04/02/2025
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